I love this article. Not because it is true (it may or may not be, I am skeptical the author is a prophet who sees the future, an alien species with greater powers or has access to enormous big data and the AI resources to crunch the global variables) but because it might be true. As I see it the essay’s scenario is MORE likely to be true than the prevailing consensus narrative. Why?

1. At a macro generalized level the logic proposed in the essay is rational. We can understand the assumptions and proposals (agree or not).
2. The macro economic models the consensus folks are working from are not valid. Modern macro economics fit better if modeled as a Complex Adaptive System like the weather (read about the work by the Santa Fe Institute or read the 30 year old book “Complexity” by Mitchell Waldrop) because that’s what it is, a CAS bordering between chaos and order. The global economy is radically more uncertain than the old economic models that use things like the rational (and static) consumer.
3. We almost certainly will have “Black Swans” that evoke chaotic behaviors, the predictions in this essay may come true even if the underlying cause-effect turn out to not be or only partly be accurate.
4. It is possible AI may have the productivity gains suggested. What’s more the world may be waking up to the need for global environmental management (earth terraforming) and as I model it that would be a massive growth engine as contrasted with the people who think carbon responsibility and reuse is an economic drag.